It's more game theory. Regardless of the chances of AGI, if you're not invested in it, you will lose everything if it happens. It's more like a hedge on a highly unlikely event. Like insurance.
And we already seeing a ton of value in LLMs. There are lots of companies that are making great use of LLMs and providing a ton of value. One just launched today in fact: https://www.paradigmai.com/ (I'm an investor in that). There are many others (some of which I've also invested in).
I too am not rich enough to invest in the foundational models, so I do the next best thing and invest in companies that are taking advantage of the intermediate outputs.
If ASI arrives we'll need a fraction of the land we use already. We'll all disappear into VR pods hooked to a singularity metaverse and the only sustenance we'll need is some Soylent Green style sludge that the ASI will make us believe tastes like McRib(tm).
We can already make more land. See Dubai for example. And with AGI, I suspect we could rapidly get to space travel to other planets or more efficient use of our current land.
In fact I would say that one of the things that goes to values near zero would be land if AGI exists.
Perhaps but my mental model is humans will end up like landed gentry / aristos with robot servants to make stuff and will all want mansions with grounds, hence there will be a lot of land demand.
i think the investment strategies change when you dump these astronomical sums into a company. it's not like roulette where you have a fixed probability of success and you figure out how much to bet on it -- dumping in a ton of cash can also increase the probability of success so it becomes more of a pay-to-win game
And we already seeing a ton of value in LLMs. There are lots of companies that are making great use of LLMs and providing a ton of value. One just launched today in fact: https://www.paradigmai.com/ (I'm an investor in that). There are many others (some of which I've also invested in).
I too am not rich enough to invest in the foundational models, so I do the next best thing and invest in companies that are taking advantage of the intermediate outputs.