A lot of naysayers missing the point in this thread.
Is the most likely outcome that we shortly 10x the market for AI chips? Probably not. But, if OpenAI get AGI, or even just strong agents or expert tools, you can easily imagine the demand skyrocketing.
If you are a founder or VC, you are into low probability, high payoff bets. Think of this investment in those terms.
Let’s say Altman thinks there is a 20% chance of OpenAI getting AGI in 10 years. (Maybe you think it’s lower, I suspect he thinks it is higher) In the possible world where we do get AGI, the value that OpenAI can create will be hard-capped by chip production, so placing a complementary bet on chips means he can prevent this from limiting OpenAI’s growth in the happy case.
If this bet pays of 100x in 10% of worlds, it’s a great bet. From Altmans perspective the chip business could break even as long as it unlocks that 100x growth for OpenAI. He’s basically doubling down on his existing portfolio.
Another obvious issue in the imaginary AGI world is energy production; and indeed, Altman has big investments in nuclear too.
The first company that gets AGI will be the world's first $10T company. Work backwards from that.
(None of the above requires particularly high probabilities of actually achieving AGI to make sense as a bet.)
AI chips will be ~5% of TSMC's revenue in 2024. A very bullish outcome would be ~8% in 2025. TSMC spends ~$50b on capex per year. This is a completely ridiculous proposal.
Is the most likely outcome that we shortly 10x the market for AI chips? Probably not. But, if OpenAI get AGI, or even just strong agents or expert tools, you can easily imagine the demand skyrocketing.
If you are a founder or VC, you are into low probability, high payoff bets. Think of this investment in those terms.
Let’s say Altman thinks there is a 20% chance of OpenAI getting AGI in 10 years. (Maybe you think it’s lower, I suspect he thinks it is higher) In the possible world where we do get AGI, the value that OpenAI can create will be hard-capped by chip production, so placing a complementary bet on chips means he can prevent this from limiting OpenAI’s growth in the happy case.
If this bet pays of 100x in 10% of worlds, it’s a great bet. From Altmans perspective the chip business could break even as long as it unlocks that 100x growth for OpenAI. He’s basically doubling down on his existing portfolio.
Another obvious issue in the imaginary AGI world is energy production; and indeed, Altman has big investments in nuclear too.
The first company that gets AGI will be the world's first $10T company. Work backwards from that.
(None of the above requires particularly high probabilities of actually achieving AGI to make sense as a bet.)