If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce.
So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell?
That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.
> why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing
Because he wasn't expected their balance sheet to get leaked.
He had enough liquidity from FTX customer deposits to cover any Alameda margin calls from losses and Alameda wouldn't get margin called from FTX for any losses (due to their god mode).
So, he could keep just keep holding levered losses and wait for the tide to turn.
However, the FTX balance sheet got leaked and that caused CZ to want to liquidate his FTT stake.
This caused a huge wave of customers wanted to withdraw their money from FTX just in case (a very smart decision in retrospect) and he didn't expect that many customer withdrawals to come at once.
Or, maybe he thought he'd be fine if 10-20% of customers withdrew (in a worst case scenario) because he could sell the FTT "collateral".
But, the price of FTT also collapsed simultaneously and that caused the ponzi to fall apart.
Edit:
Or sorry, do you mean he should've cashed out and disappeared last month (after it was revealed that FTX lost all the customer deposits)?
Yeah, I don't think that's possible.
He would've been on the FBI most-wanted list and multiple intelligence agencies would be looking for him.
Having a billion dollars is pretty pointless if you're a top 10 most wanted criminal. Unless you have a country that's explicitly willing to shelter you, then you can't really spend the money otherwise you'll give yourself away.
Also, I don't think he's a complete psychopath. Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives and I don't think he wanted that. (if he disappeared, he would not be able to talk to his family again as aiding a fugitive from justice is illegal. Also, it would be completely impossible for his parents to live normal-ish lives if their son was on the FBI top 10 most wanted list. It's slightly more possible if their son is in prison.)
> Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives
How is that? Are they involved somehow? I’ve been following this somewhat closely and the only time I’ve seen his family mentioned is that he should have known better given his parents’ expertise, but that doesn’t imply they were involved.
No, I'm saying if he took the route of cashing out and going into hiding. He would never talk to his parents/siblings again. Or, they will be in serious legal trouble if he does.
Helping a fugitive evade governments is illegal everywhere.
And even if he goes with the "never talk to his parents/siblings again" route.
It's basically impossible for you to show your face in public anywhere if your son is on the FBI top 10 most wanted list.
It's slightly more palatable if your son is in prison lol.
Interesting. Yeah idk maybe it is more possible than I thought then.
Maybe I'll try and hop on the next Twitter spaces Sam does and ask him why he decided not to go the international fugitive route.
Or yeah idk. I guess he has strong belief that he can spin the story into an "accident" and get away with 5-10 years of jailtime? That's probably better than spending the rest of your life in hiding.
So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell?
That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.