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In scope for the context of this thread though; your GP claimed that 4 sigmas means “it’ll probably pan out as being real”, your parent provided a 6-sigma counter example.


> your GP claimed that 4 sigmas means "it'll probably pan out as being real"

No they didn't; they claimed that 4 sigmas means it will probably turn out to be something other than statistical noise. They made no claims about "it's real" versus "it's a systematic, non-statistical error".

See also https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2440


"It's 99.99% significant, if we assume the 10% case that we haven't fucked up somewhere."


Or the title of this topic as it is right now is misleading. It says they’ve confirmed the stronger magnetic field. Ie it was either predicted elsewhere or seen elsewhere. The later would build confidence in the testing apparatus.




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