Super interesting and well written story. The question I'm left with is more around the illegal oil trade. Who buys that oil, how do negotiations work, pricing established, etc.
It is principally a profit region of Royal Dutch Shell, of course, through a conglomeration of subsidiaries and shell companies (NNPC, TEPNG, and NAOC) designed to prevent the world from knowing the truth about the wealth being extracted from the Nigerian people.
The Dutch oligarchs, as well as their Royal family, are the ultimate beneficiaries of the turmoil in that region. They finance MEND, who showed up in 2006, 7 years after Royal Dutch was kicked out. TEXACO, Howard Energy - all the standard Western blood oil players are waiting in line for their share. (Blood oil is a Western game. The oil won't be nationalised, those who rule Africa from afar will never allow this to happen.)
There are also, of course, second-level groups perpetuating the violence to reap profits:
"While Niger Delta youth may handle the local tapping and loading, international players from Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, Lebanon, the Netherlands, and France all play roles in financing, transporting, and laundering the money associated with blood oil. One money trail followed a path from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire through French banks and French credit agencies to Syria and Lebanon. It also now appears that Nigerian Lebanese (those of Lebanese descent, born or naturalized in Nigeria) are heavily involved in the business, especially those with good political connections. Similarly, many top Nigerian politicians and military officers, both serving and retired, are said by internal sources, such as the army chief of staff, to be actively involved in the large-scale bunkering business."
The percentages reversed between 2012 and 2017, starting from 75% international black market / 25% domestic black market (i.e. sold inside Nigeria) to 25% international / 75% domestic. That’s in the states of Bayelsa and Rivers (Bonny Island, mentioned in the story, is in Rivers State) according to the 2018 report ““More Money, More Problems” – Economic Dynamics of the Artisanal Oil Industry in the Niger Delta Over Five Years” by the British NGO Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN).
“Our analysis indicates that all levels of the artisanal oil refining value chain are better organised and more profitable than five years ago. Data simulations indicate there are more refineries in operation, that are capable of producing larger volumes of fuel.
The industry is characterised by severe threats to stabilisation, which will continue to escalate if
the drivers of the industry are not addressed effectively. These include poor working conditions,
environmental pollution, health hazards, revenue loss to the government, increased risk of
armed confrontation between associates, and raids on communities by security agencies.
These problems are layered upon, and a result of, the environmental destruction, economic
underdevelopment, and insecurity which has been caused by the actions and poor governance
of the oil industry in the region.
At the same time, the supply chain is efficient in processing large amounts of fuel to feed the
growing domestic demand that cannot be met by the Federal Government. The informal system
observed appears to be functioning for many people - providing not only fuel, but livelihoods
and a sense of economic and environmental justice.
The situation demonstrates that the current responses are not addressing the complex
economic dynamics that sustain the industry and encourage new entrants. Instead, the focus
on militarised policy appears to be catalysing the development of the industry at a rapid rate.
To encourage withdrawal of those embedded in the industry, as well as those drawn into it for
employment, policies should prioritise the development of economic alternatives that put the
demonstrated skills to use in the formal economy, as well as the energy poverty driving demand.”
I’ve worked with SDN over the years developing the Oil Spill Monitor and the Gas Flare Tracker applications that the Nigerian government uses for tracking environmental damage from the oil industry: https://sentido-labs.com/en/library/?filter=nigerian
There is actually a name for it: "the resource curse." You can even see it inside the USA by looking at the corruption and poverty in those states that have an economy based mostly on some kind of resource extraction. Oligarchs sit at the top and enrich themselves with the cooperation of bought politicians and other officials, and things like education or any attempt to diversify the economy are neglected as there is (to the oligarchs) no need. The money is flowing so who cares if the schools suck, the water is contaminated, and the people are all dying of opiate overdoses...
