This line of thinking is partly what the author is warning about. France’s early war aims in WWI were to recapture Alsace-Lorraine (think Crimea). Germany’s were, basically, to be taken seriously. Britain was fairly anti-war but got talked into by the Germans triggering their treaty requirements invading Belgium (and being horrible there). Austria-Hungry was a monarchy that started the whole thing because of what they viewed as an act of state sponsored terrorism against the regime.
Everyone knew war was a economically foolish action (although many believed “reparations” would cover the cost), but WWI happened anyway. They believed that the war would be cheap and over quickly- the troops deployed in August would be home by Christmas.
I agree with the worrying trends the article notes. There are two countervailing trends that help stabilize the current system though- one is nuclear weapons, which really make clear the potential costs of conflict, and the other is the consistent success of Guerillia warfare and insurgencies since WWII, which all major powers except China have experienced in recent memory, reminding them of the costs of ground warfare.
Everyone knew war was a economically foolish action (although many believed “reparations” would cover the cost), but WWI happened anyway. They believed that the war would be cheap and over quickly- the troops deployed in August would be home by Christmas.
I agree with the worrying trends the article notes. There are two countervailing trends that help stabilize the current system though- one is nuclear weapons, which really make clear the potential costs of conflict, and the other is the consistent success of Guerillia warfare and insurgencies since WWII, which all major powers except China have experienced in recent memory, reminding them of the costs of ground warfare.