(Optional: I would really appreciate it if you can from now on, optionally add these things on archive.org as well, I have made a submission on how to use these things, It's just a non profit effort on saving things on archive.org as well as some people's dns is starting to block archive.is or captcha related issues)
I would encourage all young men and women to avoid the military. Who in their right mind would want their young men and women to serve under this administration. Just avoid the military period, nothing admirable serving a country that doesn't respect democracy and freedom.
I disagree. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. China and Pakistan told Iran to come to the table, and negotiate, because they do not want a collapsed Iran.
Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, run a financial economy, pay salaries, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots.
Iran would collapse, within a week. It would devolve into factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria.
The US and Israel have been sitting on this card the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran.
Now reason without water, aka Israeli + GCC desalination. Iran with shit water situation is still less existentially water stressed. Iran 5% vs others 80/90%+ dependency on desalination = once Iran demonstrated survivable regional strike complex, they own the top end of escalation ladder that can take out everyone with them while coming out least harmed.
This not to mention, relative to US performance / conemps, i.e. going back to standoff munitions, there's not really enough discretionary high end munitions to take degrade all Iranian infra vs Iran has enough in reserve to take out all regional desalination. Nevermind US expending 1000s more TLAMs / JASSM(ER)s leaving it unprepared for any other near peer conflict. Reminder Iraq was 20% size of Iran, and so far US+Israel only flew ~20% of sorties via Iran than it has Iraq. Even factoring in precision munitions, US would have to expend more munitions than it has to actually cripple Iran on par with Iraq.
they dont want to do that attack, because Iran can still respond in kind, and both Israel and the US have some value in electricity, oil, and water existing around the gulf and in Israel.
if you make Iran pay that war cost ahead of time, what are you gonna negotiate for after?
Navel Defense? Missile Shields? Good luck with that....
They would be better off building bunkers that can house millions of people for the population to retreat into (at least in Cities). Is the US Military that inept that they don't see what war has become? It's basically streaming live from Ukraine.
If there is one thing I have noticed is that big military powers can be stopped and exhausted by much smaller countries using off the shelf tech. America still needs to learn that lesson and Iran might be the place where it happens....
I find it interesting the Trump thinks he can walk away from this. He shit the bed and now wants everyone to sleep in it. I don't know what kind of pressure the Gulf States can exert on him, but I believe they are in a position to economically harm the USA. I believe there will be a ground war and the poor bastards that have to carry it out should be watching every Ukrainian drone video they can. Like Zaluzhnyi said, War is not what the West thinks it is, the machines will eat them alive.
The EU is already preparing if Orban is re-elected. They are working on 5 different options with the last one being Hungary ejected from the EU. Highly unlikely but they still have it as an option. What is incredible is they have a state that is doing everything it can to give Russia control over all of Europe and they seem almost indifferent.
Indifference is the right word. America thinks Europe is one country. In reality my country has had no economic or cultural ties with Hungary since the Roman empire and couldn't care less.
I have never been to a country where the wind blows at plus 60kph for months at a time (Wexford). I don't think I have ever been there in the last 20 years where the wind has not been howling, the potential for Wind Power there is insane.....
Some speculation....I think the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days until it wears out both Gulf and American missile defense. 100's of Drones every week targeting Refineries, LNG Gas terminals, Data Centers, Hotels, etc, just like the Russians do to Kyiv every night. The only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion.
Russia and China have the USA right where they want them unless there is a regime collapse (highly unlikely) or a ground invasion (more likely). The Gulf States will be exhausted and the USA will be ground down defending them.
There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
This is much bigger than most Americans can comprehend at the moment, no one has ever won a war with just an air assault. Iran is twice as big as Iraq, and Israel and the USA have thrown everything they can at it short of a Nuclear bomb and it is still standing.
> the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days
The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated. If America, meanwhile, gets to field test its new anti-drone kit, from gun- and laser-based platforms to kamikaze drones.
> only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion
Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory. Ukraine was prohibited by Biden for ages from striking inside Russia, to where the drones and missiles were being made.
> There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
The pressure point on Putin is tasking the Coast Guard with seizing Russian shadow-fleet tankers again.
> no one has ever won a war with just an air assault
No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
> The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated.
That is impossible without committing to boots on the ground.
> Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory.
Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground. If they're hidden underground or beneath a mountain, how do you blow them up? Boots on the ground.
> No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
The reason he hasn't gotten around to defining a war aim is that there is no legitimate war aim. Netanyahu wanted to blow shit up and the Pentagon foolishly followed along instead of telling him "you're on your own".
> That is impossible without committing to boots on the ground
Why?
> Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground
Same way we found Khamenei. Slowly attriting that production base (together with Iran’s economy) is something America can do from afar for a while. Bonus points if Iran’s neighbours get pissed off enough to start seizing buffer territory with their own boots.
> there is no legitimate war aim
Of course there is. It’s regime change. We just haven’t committed the resources to accomplishing it.
I wonder if people started to lose their jobs, would that bother them?
I suppose there are also security concerns. Could he put a lot of pressure on NATO and Spain's membership which would certainly cause a lot of pain. I know Spain is far from Russia and all but he could refuse to sell them any parts and weapon systems.
Just saying, why poke a pile of shit and then get it all over you. Trump is temporary and best to just quietly wait it out, unless you want to smell like shit.
To be fair, in addition to waiting it out, I would also be careful not to be an active participant in an illegal wars and/or possible war crimes within the scope domestic laws of Spain and international law. Not to mention in history books.
> I wonder if people started to lose their jobs, would that bother them?
I'm sure losing their jobs bothers anyone, but my might is they won't assign it to Trump.
If Trump behaves badly threatens Europe and then countries don't let him use bases, who's at fault? Trump.
In fact people might lose their jobs and assign it to the chaos created by Trump. He doesn't care, of course, my point is if people don't assign it to their own politicians, then the trade thread isn't effective.
The damage is very serious and it won't be fast or cheap to fix. But not "decades." A lot of the people doing damage are susceptible to corruption prosecution. The non-corrupt True Believers are too stupid to avoid being turned into cartoon villains.
> Trump is temporary and best to just quietly wait it out, unless you want to smell like shit.
Everything is temporary in this life. All the harm that Trump could do, too. So I don't think we the Spaniards should get involved in this "Epstein Coalition" illegal wars. Remember, all Trump's threats are temporary, as you said.
The disproportionate retaliation against Spain, I think, is out of fear that the US face consequences. The Trump-Epstein cabal would be quickly over if a united European Union actually put some resistance or threat that affected the bottom line of American companies: "push the petty dictator out, or we stop trade with the US"... billionaires would suddenly start funding progressive think tanks.
But I digress... It's nice to fantasize about having elected leaders finally find their balls.
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