Why do you think the number of people in Iran matters?
I think most of what you said is just speculation, not founded on reality. The only thing that would stop the US from invading Iran in under 3 months is political will.
Russia doesn't have the scale and power of the US airforce, or the ability to project that power using the US navy and all the bases in the middle-east. Any comparison with russia at all makes me question your entire analysis.
Iran is big and geographically challenging, Afghanistan is notorious in the same sense as well, even more so by their infamous defeat and expelling of Russia in the 80's. The US invaded afghanistan in a matter of 1-2 months and held on to the country for 20 years.
Establishing a FOB initially will be challenging but with Kuwait and KSA eagerly cooperating, it won't be a challenge.
Drones are effective when your enemy is nearby and you can project it against them. Iran can threaten just about any US interest in the region but not the US homeland itself. They can't attack Europe because that would risk drawing them into the conflict, so their only option is to attack existing enemies in the region and do their best to inflate the price of oil.
And therein is their strategy that might win the war, it isn't all the reasons you listed, but political will as a result of economic pressure. The US lost in Afghanistan, Vietnam, and even arguably in Iraq because of loss of political will to continue the conflict. But then again, the current administration will not be deterred by pesky things such as the will of the american people, they'll use it to declare emergencies and attempt to hold on to power instead. The only thing that can defeat the US right now is the republican party in the US willing to turn on their beloved dictator.
> Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran.
The US has bunker-busters.
Even though your analysis is full of many technical flaws the most critical flaw in my opinion is how you aren't considering aerial advantage for the US, but yet you seem to think drones are an advantage. Drones are only useful at attacking pre-determined regional targets to influence political will. For the US however, unlike Russia, the US doesn't have a decrepit airforce, and doesn't flinch at launching $70~M/launch tomahawks. The ukrainain army right now isn't withstanding a constant barrage of bomber jets dropping on them. Russia is several decades behind US equivalent fleets from what I understand.
The US military hasn't been sitting on their hands watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict either. They've been testing all kinds of anti-drone tech in the desert for a while now, but this is the real opportunity for them to battle-test different techniques. No one is sanctioning the US either (more like sanctioning itself), and there is no real or practical shortage of war-chest funds (unlike Russia), and having a big war every two decades means the US military-industrial complex far more capable to meet the supply-chain logistics demands.
The US military certainly is the biggest in the world, dwarfing all other countries' militaries combined. But the thing most people don't realize is that is not what makes it the most capable invading force in the world, it is the sheer efficiency of the logistical effectiveness unseen the history of war before, backed by the ability to fund years-long wars without so much as flinching on the domestic economy front.
I would argue that the if the political will existed, the US can invade the entire region, from the Mediterranean to the Himalayas in less time than how long Russia has been at war with Ukraine. Even if the US couldn't use the bases and airspace in Europe at all, the calculus remains the same.
> This worked a lot better when the trouble spots couldn't do much to them.
Huh? what do you mean? They're entirely designed to address hostilities, they're not designed establish access in a non-hostile littoral, this goes back to WW2 beachead establishments (like normandy). The carrier ships are never meant to be close to land to where they're a target, but the carrier group itself is entirely designed to establish a beachead and deploy an expeditionary force under hostile conditions. I admit, maybe my history recall is lacking, do you know of any post-WW2 conflicts where the US navy established a beach head as part of an invading force that didn't face both aerial and naval resistance? Iran and Afghanistan didn't require it, neither did Korea or Vietnam as far as I know.
The non-war obsessed normies are something to behold, that's for sure. Most probably the GP has never looked at the FPV videos coming out of Ukraine, or maybe he somehow thinks that US soldiers are Terminator-like machines who would have nothing to fear from aerial drones.
> Iran can threaten just about any US interest in the region but not the US homeland itself.
Much thanks to the impenetrable Mexico border, through which no foul thing has ever slipped past... /s
Iran can very much sneak drones into the US and do an Operation Spiderweb-style attack. Won't happen next week, but Russia thought they were done in 3 weeks.
Do you have any examples? Because from Amazon to Uber, they're not great from an end user perspective. It's not like people who like the website will stop using it because of chatgpt, this would be attracting people who complain about the website/app. People are always complaining about amazon for example, i don't like the experience but I haven't had all that much bad product experience from them, but people who keep saying they're getting bad products on Amazon can maybe use chatgpt, talk to it so it understands what they're looking for in natural language, in a way the search bar can't and keep their patronage.
I disagree, walmart's website isn't nice. a lot of commerce sites are cancer!
if i can just ask chatgpt or gemini to shop I'd love that.
Just navigating their sites for items is a pain, I can imagine an LLM being great at finding items, and facilitating the browsing experience. My only concern would be having to chat with it a lot, and any dark patterns coercing impulse purchases.
to buy a toilet paper, you have to click 2-3 buttons or type out toilet paper in a search bar and hit a button. and then you have to scroll around, hit more buttons, filter, sort, then click through to the product page, review details, add it to your cart, start the checkout and select a payment method, confirm the order, and purchase.
compared to prompts:
"Show me toilet paper that has good reviews for being soft and that doesn't clog"
"I'll buy the first option, just use the card I used last time for payment"
What saves time with an LLM is being able to communicate what you want in natural language. with the normal experience, you're pressing lots of buttons and other inputs to get some results so you figure it out yourself. You will get results, and you will pick what you think is the best option for you (but chances are it isn't, since the site didn't know exactly what you wanted).
we need some sort of a universal crowd-sourced site rating system. Things like user experience, scamminess, user-hostility, site ownership-affiliations,etc.. all opt-in by users of course, you setup the criteria that is important to you and the browser displays different ratings or blocks certain sites (like scammy/fraudulent ones) out right. The reputation providers would also be selectable like search engines. I'd imagine there would be crowdsourced lists of all sorts.
If you have older pepople struggling with cognition for example, this would be a good way to limit their exposure to scams.
But commercial sites like this could also be rated as a privacy risk for the intense ad capitalism, or a 'bloat' to tell users it will slow down their computer by visiting the site. You could set it up so that when certain categories and ratings are met, the browser warns you before you could navigate to it.
Another idea is to have this same system include alternative suggestions. For example, if a site has age verification, you would be able to setup your browser so that it warns you when you visit sites of that nature, listing alternatives recommended by the list maintainer, for whatever that site provides.
On Kagi you can increase/decrease a domain's ranking for your personal search results, and they make the aggregated stats public, showing for example Pinterest as the most blocked site, which matches part of what you're looking for: https://kagi.com/stats?stat=insights
I wonder if you could automate the rating. Suppose you had some sort of engine where people could search for things, and the pages that get more clicks would have a higher rank. Plus you could supplement that by tracing links, since better pages will probably link to each other. As long as you promise to do no evil, I bet this would be a pretty good system.
I suppose Google’s doing this and they’ve built it into Chrome which is what grandma is using anyway, but what I’ve seen change over the past 20 years is the way these losers automate the cycling of their domains which are now registered with companies who couldn’t care less about phishing.
Apparently nobody's even checking if anyone responds to reports anymore, which does mean you're right that for some golden spam domains where they’re typosquatting, getting the website on a block list would help. Then the losers probably wouldn't be able to use “bank-app[.]biz” for too long and would have to resort to uglyAlphabetSoupMess.tld (instantly refreshed as soon as it’s added to any blocklist; & GPT spam college is open to continue training more script kiddies)
I remember in the 2000's there was a site that did exactly this. I can't remember the name now though, maybe someone else will know what I'm talking about.
I must disagree but only a tiny bit. modern IDEs try to indent and attempt to add indentation as you code which can cause problems sometimes.
tabs vs spaces is very painful still when copying code that is in a different format. it's not just tabs and spaces, but the width of the tabs and the spaces. Even with VSCode extensions and sublime text extensions I've struggled a lot recently with this.
I commented on a sibling thread just now, but it is still very easy in python to mess up one level of indentation. When I caught bugs of that sort, it was introduced either when copy pasting, when trying to make a linter happy and doing cosmetic cleanup, or when moving code around levels of indentation, like introducing a try/except. I had one recently where if I recall correctly I moved a continue statement under or out of a try/except when messing around with the try/except logic. it was perfectly valid, and didn't stand out much visually, pydnatic and other checkers didn't catch it either. It could have happened with a '}' but it's easier to mess up a level of indentation than it is to put the '}' at the wrong level. a cosmetic fix results in a logic bug because of indentations in python. with curly's, a misplacement of that sort can't happen because of indentation or cosmetic/readability fixes.
what the curly approach asserts is a separation of readability and logic syntax.
The interpreter/compiler should understand your code first and foremost, indenting code should be done, and should be enforced, but automatically by the compiler/interpreter. Python could have used curly braces and semi-colons, and force-indented your code every time it ran it to make it more readable for humans.
we don't even use indents that way in natural language. We use things like bullet points, we need specific markers.
space is for spacing, tabs are for tabulation, they are not in any human language I know of used as terminators of statements. You know what is the equivalent of an indent or a semicolon in english? a period. <-
We have paragraph breaks just like this to delimit blocks of english statements.
A semi-colon is used to indicate part of a sentence is done, yet there is still related continuation of the statement that is yet to be finished. Periods are confusing because they're used in decimal points and other language syntax, so a semi-colon seems like a good fit.
If I had my pick, I would use a colon to indicate the end of a statement, and a double colon '::' to indicate the end of a block.
func main(): int i - 0: do: i=i+1: print(i): while(i<10):: ::
another downside of indentation is it's award to do one-liners with such languages, as with python.
There is a lot of subjectivity with syntax, but python code for example with indents is not easy for humans to read, or for syntax validators to validate. it is very easy for example to intend a statement inside a for loop or an if/else block in python (nor not-intend it), and when pasting around code you accidentally indent one level off without meaning to. if you know to look for it, you'll catch it, but it's very easy to miss, since the mis-indented statement is valid and sensible on its own, nothing will flag it as unusual.
In my opinion, while the spirit behind indentation is excellent, the right execution is in the style of 'go fmt' with Go, where indenting your code for you after it has been properly parsed by the compiler/interpreter is the norm.
I would even say the first thing a compiler as well as interpreter do should be to auto-indent, and line-wrap your code. that should be part of the language standard. If the compiler can't indent your code without messing up logic or without making it unreadable, then either your code or the language design has flaw.
with apples in that list for example, you used '2.1' to indicate a new item, the space is cosmetic, the functional indicator is '2.1'
This wouldn't look right:
Introduction
Fruit
Apples
Red apples
Green apples
I'm sure you can work it out, but it doesn't feel natural, or ideal. (i can't get hn to format it without making it all one line so i used double new line).
it would look better still with a dash or a bullet point for every sub-entry. We're not arguing that it is possible to do that, we're arguing what is ideal for readability.
In that list you can naturally guess what that ordering is, but if the items were not so interrelated it can be confusing. if the top level item is 'Ham' and the indented item under it is 'sandwich' are you wrapping the same phrase 'Ham Sandwich' , because indentation (even in python) is used when wrapping lines, or is sandwich under ham as one of the things done with ham. it is thus error-prone and more confusing, clear and specific punctuation alongside indentation makes it easier to read.
No one is saying that indentation can not be used to display lists/sublists, I'm saying that markers remove ambiguity even across movement of blocks of texts.
I am more surprised at the concept of something the size of aircraft carrier being expected to have some level of location privacy. I would think the general area of the world it's operating at could be deduced easily from its last port of call and other things, a cheap amateur home-made radar can have a general idea within a few sq-km resolution by pinging from any littoral up to a few hundred km. I would also have thought, anyone that would care about targeting an aircraft carrier that's at a greater distance away from a coast would also have access to satellite imagery and high-altitude UAV.
I have seen more concerning things being revealed like locations of secret bases, and even internal building maps by looking at troops' WiFi. but those are secret places.
Looking at what Tehran is facing (not related to the war, water shortage), I'm wondering why california isn't investing in more desalination for SoCal, especially for LA.
But there are only a few in SoCal and they're for smaller communities like carlsbad or santa barbara. So it is there and it is working for some, why not more? naturally i assume it's because everything costs more at the coast.
> I'm wondering why california isn't investing in more desalination for SoCal, especially for LA.
Because California has plenty of water for residents. What California doesn't have is plenty of water for agribusiness.
And the agribusinesses do NOT want people paying close attention as all the valid solutions to water problems are basically "shut down agribusinesses in arid areas".
people are always trying to conserve water, and droughts have been a plague for the past few decades. Even if the agriculture is taking up all the water, it doesn't change how water scarcity is a a very real part of socal life. You don't have to shutdown agriculture elsewhere, and it is a vital part of california's economy, that's just a lazy solution. I can get behind getting the agriculture industry to finance partly the desalination plants so they can free up the fresh water via the aqueduct.
In the unlikely event california becomes independent, water rights will be a big deal too, those natural water sources won't be so reliable without nevada's cooperation.
> You don't have to shutdown agriculture elsewhere, and it is a vital part of california's economy, that's just a lazy solution.
Agribusiness is under 2% of the California economy and an even smaller employer. You could wipe it completely out and the state would barely notice.
And nobody is saying to wipe out actual food production. Mostly people want to stomp on things like growing and exporting alfalfa (which is effectively exporting water for all intents and purposes).
> droughts have been a plague for the past few decades
Droughts have been a plague forever. Quoting Steinbeck from East of Eden:
“During the dry years, the people forgot about the rich years, and when the wet years returned, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”
> In the unlikely event california becomes independent, water rights will be a big deal too
This is all hypothetical of course but the logical eastern border of an independent state centered in what's now California would be near Denver for precisely this reason.
Because the economics of desalination require locking in long term purchase/production rates at prices that dwarf current and other sources of water.
SD's Poseidon desal is projected at ~$3.7k per acre ft for 2026 whereas SDCWA SWP water is ~$1.5-1.9k acre ft.
Leak fixes, groundwater recharge, local aquifers, water banking, potable reuse, etc. are all more economical means of bolstering water supply.
A big factor in determining desalination placement in the region are the groundwater basins. Limited size and availability makes the case for desalination as means for resiliency. Another is that situating adjacent to power plants so as to use their already coastally degraded intakes/outfalls. Doheny is to use subsurface slant wells for intakes, but it's also lower output too.
As for LA. they're working on getting their potable reuse plants/projects up and running. The largest indirect potable reuse plant in the world has been operating in OC for ~18 years. Lower operating costs than desalination, reduced wastewater discharge, and reduced coastal impact.
that's very insightful. But if I can dive a bit deeper, why can't desalination be made at a grander scale? why aren't desalination plants trying to fill up artificial lakes for example, where those lakes are also being topped-up with reused potables. Would it help if there were much larger nuclear powerplants in the desert that take in salt water via an aqueduct from the sea and send back fresh water to artificial lakes, depositing the waste into the desert? Salton sea might be a good enough spot in socal for example, where it is already toxic and salty.
The few times I've been to the Salton area, I was amazed at the agriculture in the middle of the desert, including things like citrus plants, despite smelling the stench of salton from there. There are various lakes that dry up all the time like big bear, what would it take to keep such basins capable of sustaining fresh watter topped up with desalinated fresh water, instead of directly consuming it? In other words, making desalination an upstream element, with the goal of resisting drought overall, not just immediate fresh water supply.
I've ever wondered about places like death valley, if the elevation there is so low, is it easier to build geothermal plants that could desalinate at a greater rate there?
And since I'm asking dumb questions already, if an aqueduct to LA is possible at a 4 hour driving distance, then I know it would be costly, but is it that impractical to build an aqueduct from the great lakes, which have no shortage of fresh water, and evaporation loss could easily be recouped by the sheer volume of available fresh water supply.
The Owens River source for LA is so good because it’s basically a continuous gradual decline from the source to the city, requiring no pumps.
Pumping is very energy intensive. At around 2000-3000 ft the energy needed to pump fresh water starts to equal the energy needed to desalinate the same amount of salt water.
Even if it’s just going up then back down again like the Tehachapi Mountains only like 1/3rd of the energy can be reclaimed.
I don't understand the financial concern at all. How could increasing the water supply increase the price? It only makes sense to me if the price is artificially low right now.
Environmental damage by a desalinization plant couldn't possibly be worse than overdrawing the acquifer -- the defacto solution.
As part of the contract for construction, the county or city must buy a certain amount of water every year.
Because desalination is not economically feasible, the water is more expensive and this extra subsidy raises the cost of the water bill.
This is how it works for the facility in San Diego County.
Building a desalination facility is economically hard to justify because the break-even point seems far away. It also assumes the state won’t eventually create a state-wide solution, which would benefit from a state-level economy of scale that a city/county effort might not.
> It also assumes the state won’t eventually create a state-wide solution, which would benefit from a state-level economy of scale that a city/county effort might not.
How would a state-level solution to who deserves water more benefit from economies of scale? This is about as core of an example of where you don't want central planning as you can find.
Water is normally "free" from mother nature. Desalinated water is not free as it cost energy to get the clean water. Even if there's a pump to get water from aquifers into the water system, that still rounds to free compared to the cost of running a desalination plant.
That is why I said "artificially low." As there is a water shortage, the current price should justifiably be higher. Instead we will simply run out or damage the acquifer by saltwater intrusion.
I’m in a rare community in Southern California (part of north county San Diego) where my water is 27% from the ocean (10% for rest of San Diego county).
It’s cool. Still totally hard and makes everything fail early.
It would pay for itself after a few flooding events where were are able to redistribute the water more quickly. It also provides clean energy storage.
I've posted about it before with links to the studies but it usually just starts an argument by people worried the rest of the country is going to steal their water...
It seems like the least efficient way to solve the problem. Theres lots of water in many places in the US, if water is just allowed to be priced by how scarce it is in California, maybe people will move to a place where it’s not such a big deal.
This is the sort of low quality reply that made me think twice about commenting. Every time I mention it it's another set of poor quality, no thought, drive by responses and downvotes.
Why do you think it's good to let the productive agricultural land of CA lay fallow? Why do you want areas in the east to go without proper flood control? Why do you think national food security is not a priority? I could go on... Read up on it if you like, or don't. Whatever.
I’m not a fan of people who say a comment is low quality because someone disagrees with them. I’m not going to engage any further with this discussion.
I think most of what you said is just speculation, not founded on reality. The only thing that would stop the US from invading Iran in under 3 months is political will.
Russia doesn't have the scale and power of the US airforce, or the ability to project that power using the US navy and all the bases in the middle-east. Any comparison with russia at all makes me question your entire analysis.
Iran is big and geographically challenging, Afghanistan is notorious in the same sense as well, even more so by their infamous defeat and expelling of Russia in the 80's. The US invaded afghanistan in a matter of 1-2 months and held on to the country for 20 years.
Establishing a FOB initially will be challenging but with Kuwait and KSA eagerly cooperating, it won't be a challenge.
Drones are effective when your enemy is nearby and you can project it against them. Iran can threaten just about any US interest in the region but not the US homeland itself. They can't attack Europe because that would risk drawing them into the conflict, so their only option is to attack existing enemies in the region and do their best to inflate the price of oil.
And therein is their strategy that might win the war, it isn't all the reasons you listed, but political will as a result of economic pressure. The US lost in Afghanistan, Vietnam, and even arguably in Iraq because of loss of political will to continue the conflict. But then again, the current administration will not be deterred by pesky things such as the will of the american people, they'll use it to declare emergencies and attempt to hold on to power instead. The only thing that can defeat the US right now is the republican party in the US willing to turn on their beloved dictator.
> Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran.
The US has bunker-busters.
Even though your analysis is full of many technical flaws the most critical flaw in my opinion is how you aren't considering aerial advantage for the US, but yet you seem to think drones are an advantage. Drones are only useful at attacking pre-determined regional targets to influence political will. For the US however, unlike Russia, the US doesn't have a decrepit airforce, and doesn't flinch at launching $70~M/launch tomahawks. The ukrainain army right now isn't withstanding a constant barrage of bomber jets dropping on them. Russia is several decades behind US equivalent fleets from what I understand.
The US military hasn't been sitting on their hands watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict either. They've been testing all kinds of anti-drone tech in the desert for a while now, but this is the real opportunity for them to battle-test different techniques. No one is sanctioning the US either (more like sanctioning itself), and there is no real or practical shortage of war-chest funds (unlike Russia), and having a big war every two decades means the US military-industrial complex far more capable to meet the supply-chain logistics demands.
The US military certainly is the biggest in the world, dwarfing all other countries' militaries combined. But the thing most people don't realize is that is not what makes it the most capable invading force in the world, it is the sheer efficiency of the logistical effectiveness unseen the history of war before, backed by the ability to fund years-long wars without so much as flinching on the domestic economy front.
I would argue that the if the political will existed, the US can invade the entire region, from the Mediterranean to the Himalayas in less time than how long Russia has been at war with Ukraine. Even if the US couldn't use the bases and airspace in Europe at all, the calculus remains the same.
> This worked a lot better when the trouble spots couldn't do much to them.
Huh? what do you mean? They're entirely designed to address hostilities, they're not designed establish access in a non-hostile littoral, this goes back to WW2 beachead establishments (like normandy). The carrier ships are never meant to be close to land to where they're a target, but the carrier group itself is entirely designed to establish a beachead and deploy an expeditionary force under hostile conditions. I admit, maybe my history recall is lacking, do you know of any post-WW2 conflicts where the US navy established a beach head as part of an invading force that didn't face both aerial and naval resistance? Iran and Afghanistan didn't require it, neither did Korea or Vietnam as far as I know.
reply