This is the crux of the whole conversation. What percentage of software is "critical"? My guess is 50%. And AI will soon be able to play in that space as well. So in the future, maybe 25% of "critical" software will require real humans in the loop?
I think that citizen developers will be a thing--but not in the way you might be thinking.
More people will be enabled (and empowered) to "build" quick-and-dirty solutions to personal problems by just talking to their phone: "I need way to track my food by telling you what I ate and then you telling me how much I have left for today. And suggest what my next meal should be."
In the current paradigm--which is rapidly disappearing--that requires a UI app that makes you type things in, select from a list, open the app to see what your totals are, etc. And it's a paid subscription. In 6 months, that type of app can be ancient history. No more subscription.
So it's not about "writing apps for SaaS subscribers." It's about not needing to subscribe to apps at all. That's the disruption that's taking place.
Crappy code, maintenance, support, etc.--no longer even a factor. If the user doesn't like performance, they just say "fix ___" and it's fixed.
What subscription apps can't be replaced in this disruption? Tell me what you think.
Almost everything requires a UI. There's just nothing faster than quick glances and taps. It's why voice assistants or hand-waving gesture controls never took over. Having an agent code all those - possibly very complex things - is just impossible without AGI. How would it even work?
- Would the agent go through current app user flows OpenClaw style? Wildly insecure, error-prone, expensive.
- Tapping in to some sort of third party APIs/MCPs. authed, metered, documented how and by which standard to be not abused and hacked?
The unhyped truth is that LLMs are just wildly more competent autocomplete, and there is no such disruption in sight. The status quo of developers and users mostly remains.
Today I asked ChatGPT to make me a weekly calorie plan and it was perfect. But then I still use MyFitnessPal to log my calories because their food database is outstanding, and the UX of scanning food barcodes is unbeatable. They have the most niche items in my country, Spain.
How are LLMs going any of that? An app is often much more than a CRUD interface.
Maybe I could build a custom app that scans the nutrition facts table and with voice I could explain how much I ate or something - I’m technical, but really, I have better things to do and I’d rather pay MFP 10 bucks a month.
Both would make a great foundation for this sort of app. OFF is crowdsourced and does include barcode information. I have no idea how robust the dataset is for your geography though. If I were to build something like this for personal use, I'd be looking at a PWA that can leverage the camera for barcode scanning. I'd work with the existing crowd sourced database as well as provide a mechanism for "manual" entry which should just be scanning a barcode and taking a picture of the nutrition information. I've personally built systems like this before and all of these things are well within the capability of most SOTA LLM to build out.
I am not going to even try until it becomes a literal weekend project with zero maintenance and perfect reliability. Maintenance is crucial - I would not want to become the maintainer of two dozen apps that are genuinely useful to me. At 10€ a month the economics are not there. Even researching if the codebar database has perfect coverage in Spain like MFP sounds like more time than I would like to invest. I have a thousand other projects I’d like to build.
That seems like it's within striking distance of competitive, no? You get some major advantages in size and production automation. Perhaps it's ok for it to die sooner if you can get it built now and then replace it later.
well aside from being effectively 20 times more expensive over entire operation...
DC switches (as in, just a power switch) are vastly more expensive because while in AC you have 100 breaks in current a second, DC is constant so it is far harder to break. So even if you had device that could use both (not hard with SMPS, they have rectification as first step), it's still essentially " replace everything".
The protections side is a big problem - most HVDC has circuit breakers operating on the HVAC sides of the link so going to full DC transmission presumably wouldn't eliminate that equipment.
Or, alternatively, you switch to DC to get more current capacity over existing wires. (At a given voltage, a wire can generally carry more DC current because it doesn't have the same "skin effect" that AC has.) Even if the hardware at the substation is more expensive, it might be cheaper than upgrading the transmission lines.
The headline reminds me of a good movie from the 70's called The Sentinel--a woman (nun) becomes the person responsible, sitting in a NYC apartment looking out over the harbor, for watching over the gates of hell. Good cast.
The power is in the marketplace. As long as people are free to make rational choices about price and consumption, the miracle of capitalism will prevail.
Don't like big oil? Don't use a lot of gasoline. Angry about Silicon Valley? Stop using social media. Egg and beef prices ticking you off? You know what to do. Is the cost of housing too high? Form cooperatives, move to another location, etc.
This works for social and political issues as well where free choice is still available.
Be the change that you want to see happen in a capitalist free market system.
- Change is inevitable.
- Keep learning and adapting.
- Failure is essential for success.
- The real money is in the deal, not the salary.
- The bigger your network, the greater your opportunities
- Don't be afraid to raise your hand first.
- Effective communication and being presentable is still very important in this world.
- School is about expanding your mind, learning how to learn and problem solving--not memorizing information.
- Keep a diary and establish good habits.
- Exercise regularly, eat your vegetables and don't eat junk food.
- Make friends and stay in touch
- Spend time outdoors and enjoy nature
- What you think is important is just one opinion: don't assume you are always right just because you thought of it
- stay in the moment because that is all we really have
Not sure what data they are using. Here is what I get, and these are not Midwest cities:
Using the latest completed U.S. Census metro-area estimates I could verify — population change from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 — the 5 fastest-growing U.S. metro areas by percentage growth were:
1. Ocala, Florida — 4.0%
2. Panama City–Panama City Beach, Florida — 3.8%
3. Myrtle Beach–Conway–North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina — 3.8%
4. Lakeland–Winter Haven, Florida — 3.5%
5. Provo–Orem–Lehi, Utah — 3.0%
One wrinkle: Daphne–Fairhope–Foley, Alabama also grew 3.0%, so it was effectively tied with Provo–Orem–Lehi on growth rate, though Census ranked Provo 5th and Daphne 6th.
This is a very common question here and most will scroll right by, so don't feel bad. It's an impossible question to answer, really.
But these are the things you need to consider first when choosing an area to work in for developing a product and ultimately a business:
1. What do you know really well? These are things that come from your personal experiences. Note: this is generally not about software or coding skills--it's about everything else in the world.
2. What are the problems or valuable opportunities in the areas you know well? Where there are serious problems, there are opportunities for valuable solutions.
3. Timing. What's happening in the world and how do the changes open doors for new solutions?
4. Market and Value. How many people suffer with the problems you are trying to solve? How well do you understand them? How much money will they spend for a solution? How many of these people have you spoken with: 25, 50, 100?
5. Who is competing in your market? What can you learn from them? How does your solution compare?
It's best to consider several problems and conceptual solutions before settling on one. Talk with people, build small prototypes, figure out if you truly understand the requirements.
If you do all of these things, you will have a much better shot at bringing forward a viable product and business idea.
There are some really good books out there on this whole process. Good luck.
The article is interesting as a way to understand how people are feeling. I think there are deeper questions to examine.
We don't necessarily "feel" it or "see" it, but the world has been changing dramatically for the last 50 years, or so. We all know this.
The introduction of key technology has resulted in accelerated changes. If we could step back from the everyday, we would see ourselves on a slope of change that is almost vertical.
This slope of change affects everything in our lives--society, culture, psychology, environment, government, etc.--there is nothing that can escape these changes.
The question of "the world falling apart" is really a question of how dynamic the change in the world has been over the last 50 years and our collective reticence to adaptation.
Some sense that we need to "return to better times" as a coping mechanism. Except the concept of "better times" is a fallacy. Intellectually we know this.
It is true that many of us enjoy the benefits of the changes in our ability to communicate, to entertain ourselves, to do our jobs, to travel, and so on. But some are unfortunately not able to enjoy the benefits, while certainly receiving the negative impacts.
I believe that we are all better off if we first recognize and accept the changes, and then find ways to navigate these changes collectively--even if this requires letting go of concepts that have worked in the past and/or adapting those ways to the new realities. It requires a new state of mind to begin to accomplish this. Reach out to those that need help in adapting.
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