Usually the market have rules that define the bet more concretely than just "there will be a ceasefire", and resolutions can be disputed where they will be arbitrated by the market operator. For this particular market you can see that here (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by), but I'll paste the current text too:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
So the real answer is, "whoever the market operator chooses".
This seems to involve there being an agreement in place, but not necessarily in effect or even followed, so the possibility of it having already been violated seems to be irrelevant
They put a lot more thought into the terms than the Trump administration did, that's for sure.
Still: does the combination of a deranged Truth Social posting, an obviously-pasted tweet from the Pakistani government, and a 10-point list of debatable provenance count as "clear public confirmation?"
I guess so, sort of, maybe? Fortunately I don't have a 7-figure wager at stake.
Maybe more an effective rhetorician than communicator. I suppose his communication does match the clarity of thought though... it's just that the thoughts are so jumbled he says 3 things that contradict each other in the same breath.
the point of rhetoric is persuasion or flattery, the point of communication (or argument as its usually framed going all the way back to Plato) is to accurately convey an idea or concept. In your average Trump speech the point is usually to evoke an emotion in his audience, not so much arguing anything in particular.
I don't want to wait 6hrs to download a game patch that's 40gb or whatever because that's sadly the norm. With 1gbit I can do anything and it doesn't induce latency or cause connection quality issues with anything else because no one thing can come close to saturating it really, with a few exceptions (Steam being the main one). I can also seed at high speed to private trackers. It'd be an effort to max out a 25gbit connection at home that's for sure.
Can we please not keep trying to redo prohibition. Yes it costs public health. No you can’t stop adults imbibing the drugs they want, the only thing you can do is criminalise it which makes criminals of sick people. Great work.
I would phrase that as what Tailscale does that is more convenient than wg. If you “barely know what a subnet is” go for it. wg is easy as pie though, and just don’t maintain 90 tunnels… You don’t need a full mesh. An extra hop or two, especially within a lan, won’t hurt.
I would recommend WireGuard as well, I primarily use it with Tailscale as backup. WG is straightforward to set up, and with LLM the knowledge gap is now nothing if you have trouble with it
I too wish we would all hold hands and sing kumbaya and collectively decide to simply make things better here on Earth but sadly it seems far off.
The best alternative demonstrated so far seems to be for some of us to push the limits of what is possible and watch all boats rise with the tide. Better this than slinging Tomahawks at school children.
Whether removing the tip of your finger or the whole arm, the imposition on bodily autonomy is equal. It is a violation of your personal sovereignty at the deepest level.
Absolutely. Let's switch away from fingernails to hair because that's something I can talk about with person experience. I have long hair, plenty of people have jokingly threatened to cut it in my sleep or such. To have my hair cut like that would impart no physical injury or ailment to me at all, but it would be such a severe violation of my bodily autonomy that I would have no reservation about considering it assault and bringing charges as such.
I think your point is that fingernails are just a bit of extraneous keratin that is universally removed as part of grooming and so the violation cannot be equal to having your entire arm removed, but perhaps you forget the many women and some men out there who like to decorate their fingernails and that this is an expression of self.
My point was merely that it's a matter of degree, and while having part of your fingernail removed against your consent is assault, it's not exactly the same thing as having your whole arm removed.
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